An international outbreak of a new respiratory disease called “Coronavirus” started in China killed more than 1000 people and infected more than 43000 worldwide. The outbreak started in city Wuhan, China, from the market selling live poultry, seafood and wild animals now speedily spreading among more people and reported globally.
Now the coronavirus has extended in more than 37 countries, including Japan, Hong King, South Korea, France, Australia, and the United States. Investigators in still other nations, and in several American states, are evaluating possible cases.
In a news conference, the mayor, Zhou Xianwang, as of 11 Feb 2020, the official count of confirmed cases across China stood at 42,600
The death toll in China was 80. The youngest confirmed case involved a 9-month-old girl in Beijing and it is also estimated that around half of the city’s nearly 3,000 suspected cases of the coronavirus would eventually test positive for the disease.
What is the Coronavirus in Humans?
Described by WHO – Coronaviruses named for the spikes that poke out from their crusts, which resemble the sun’s corona. It is a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases.
Coronaviruses are transmitted between animals and people, and there are several known coronaviruses currently circulating in animals, that have not yet infected humans. But now it is confirmed it is easily spreading among people.
What is Coronavirus Symptoms?
Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, the infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.
How Coronavirus Started in China?
As per the research, Coronaviruses was originated in the animals — like camels, civets and bats — and are usually not transmissible to humans. But sometimes a coronavirus mutates and can pass from animals to humans and spread further.
It is just like the case with the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) epidemic in the early 2000s. However, most, but not all, of the first known cases in December 2019 were traced to an animal market in the Chinese city of Wuhan.
It is believed to have come from contact with live infected animals like fish and birds. The market has since been closed but Wuhan, lies about 500 miles west of Shanghai is a major logistics and transportation hub with the home of more than 11 million people.
How Coronavirus Spread Or Transmitted?
As per the doctors, coronavirus is transmitted through coughing and sneezing, as is the case with influenza and other respiratory viruses. It can transmit among the humans through close contact even form the range of about 3 to 6 feet.
Though, scientists are trying to discover how easily the virus is transmitted. Till now as per the research published in a medical journal suggested that the virus was passed from one ill relative to six others; only two had contact with the initial patient.
The Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed 198 confirmed cases in Wuhan. Researchers found that 22% had direct exposure to the meat market, and 32% had contact with people who had a fever or respiratory disease.
Coronavirus – How long it takes to spread?
Till now as per the scientific research and studies the new coronavirus’s incubation period that means, the time it takes from a person being infected with the virus to when they start showing symptoms is still unknown among medical experts.
However, public health experts are working under the assumption that the incubation period is about 14 days. It’s unclear whether a person is contagious during the incubation period, so it very difficult to define how long it lasts.
But, as per the latest studies by doctors, infection is much more contagious and spreading the disease for days or weeks before they even realized among the patients. Five confirmed cases in the United States have been confirmed even if they had no symptoms at the time that might have been infectious while traveling from Wuhan to Arizona.
How Dangerous is Coronavirus?
Though, health officials around the world are alarmed, but it is hard to accurately assess the lethality of a new virus. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization has declared the Coronavirus outbreak in China a global health emergency.
The timing and life threat after getting infected with this virus is not yet defined, but if someone gets infected, and not getting the right or timely treatment, there is a higher probability of getting died due to acute respiratory problems in the lungs.
What is The Treatment for Coronavirus?
Though, till now no specific treatments for coronavirus infections have been recommended by WHO or any other health organization in the world. And there aren’t any vaccines developed yet to prevent human coronavirus infections. But to reduce your risk of getting or spreading you can take several precautions given below.
How To Prevent Coronavirus Infection?
Is there a Vaccine for Coronavirus?
There is currently no vaccine to immune against this newly discovered coronavirus, although researchers in the US and China have already begun working on one, thanks to China’s prompt sharing of the virus’s genetic code.
However, any vaccine will not be available for up to a year and would most likely be given to health workers most at risk of contracting the virus. Hence, China has started building a 1,000-bed hospital in six days to treat patients within the city Wuhan.
How China Built a hospital in six days to treat this virus in Wuhan?
To prevent this virus further infection, China has constructed a 1000-bed hospital on the area of 25,000 square meters (269,000 square feet) to treat and cure coronavirus infected people within the Wuhan city, home to around 11 million people.
Video: How China is Taking Actions to Treat & Control the Coronavirus?
Earlier in 2003, when similar virus SARS spread, China has built Xiaotangshan Hospital in Beijing, in seven days, first world record for the fastest construction of a hospital.
Video: How China Building 1000-beds Hospital in Few Days in Wuhan City
To achieve this construction, about 4,000 people worked to build the hospital, working throughout the day and night in order to meet the deadline. And inside, it had an X-ray room, CT room, ICU, laboratory and each ward equipped with its own bathrooms.
Coronavirus Treatment Cost?
Though, any specific medicine or treatment to cure coronavirus has been not been discovered, but if anyone got infected, depending on the medical facilities, equipment or hospital facilities, charges may differ. As per livemint news in China, an Indian lady is infected and it would cost her around Rs 1 Crore, which is around 10 lakh in Chinese currency Yuan.
The treatment process includes providing patients an external respiratory support, ventilators, dialysis and blood purification process. In developed countries, such advance medical equipment available at a more affordable cost while in undeveloped or developing nations, either it might be not available or can be obtainable at an expensive cost.
Is Coronavirus Spread in India?
Till now, any case of coronavirus infected humans has been reported in India, but there are huge chances. Actually, due to low educational and studies cost of medical in China, around 1200 students from India are studying there.
Amid, Chinese New Year holiday started from 25 Jan 2020, and probably many Indian students would come to the home to spend their holidays with their family. So, to avoid incoming coronavirus from China, the Indian health ministry has asked travelers from China to report to the nearest health facility in case they do not feel well.
The ministry has asked authorities at seven airports of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Cochin to screen those travelling from China.
Till now in India, two suspected and one confirmed cases of coronavirus has been identified in Bihar, Rajasthan and Kerala.
The suspected girl who recently visited China has returned to Bihar with symptoms similar to the coronavirus is being rushed to the Patna Medical College and Hospital for further tests to see if she has been infected by coronavirus. While in Jaipur, a man in his 20s has been admitted to the SMS Hospital for suspected coronavirus infection.
A girl, Indian student of Wuhan University tested positive in Kerala is kept in isolation in the hospital, and is in stable condition also being closely monitored by health authorities.
Video: Situation in China due to Coronavirus Infection
New Coronavirus Myths And Facts: 15 Myth Buster Graphics by WHO
The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV), originated from China, now spread all over the world infecting many people globally mainly Chinese. And after killing more than 2000 and infecting over tens of thousands of people globally it is not stopping.
This highly contagious disease spread so fast that it has also created lots of fear and myths among the people globally. The situation is now that, people believe anything about this infection and take extraordinary prevention to avoid getting infected. So, right here we brought the list of top coronavirus myths buster released by WHO.
Coronavirus Myths and Facts busted by WHO in Graphics
Myth1: Are hand dryers effective in killing the new coronavirus?
Myth2: Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?
Myth3: How effective are thermal scanners in detecting people infected with the new coronavirus?
Myth4: Can spraying alcohol or chlorine all over your body kill the new coronavirus?
Myth5: Is it safe to receive a letter or a package from China?
Myth6: Can pets at home spread the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?
Myth7: Do vaccines against pneumonia protect you against the new coronavirus?
Myth8: Can regularly rinsing your nose with saline help prevent infection with the new coronavirus?
Myth9: Can gargling mouthwash protect you from infection with the new coronavirus?
Myth10: Can eating garlic help prevent infection with the new coronavirus?
Myth11: Does putting on sesame oil block the new coronavirus from entering the body?
Myth12: Does the new coronavirus affect older people, or are younger people also susceptible?
Myth13: Are antibiotics effective in preventing and treating the new coronavirus?
Myth14: Are there any specific medicines to prevent or treat the new coronavirus?
Myth15: Who is most at risk?
Similarly, in the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, 8,422 people were infected and there were 916 deaths worldwide. The overall death rate for infected people was 11%. But for infected people 24 and younger, the death rate was just 1%, while for those aged 65+ it was 55%.
In brief , anyone can catch a virus. But the effect it will have on you, and how seriously ill you might become, can be dependent on several other factors.
Older people and anyone with pre-existing medical conditions, like asthma, diabetes or heart disease, appear to be more vulnerable to becoming severely ill with the new coronavirus, according to the WHO.
Though, scientist has not yet found any medicine and vaccine to control the coronavirus but globally, medical experts and veteran researchers are using the new ways to develop the effective treatment to cure the coronavirus infection.
Coronavirus Microscope Pictures Released: See how these Deadly Pathogen look
The microscopic images of coronavirus (2019-nCoV) has been released by U.S. researchers that has infected tens of thousands of people in China and other nations killed more than 1500 people worldwide became a global health emergency.
The images were released by National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, US. The science team made with scanning and transmission electron microscopes to see these viruses at microscopic level. But with normal microscope that can be too small to see, so Electron microscopes use a beam of energy to take detailed pictures of objects.
Coronavirus Microscopic Images Gallery:
Video: NovelCoronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Culture
The images of coronavirus have been colorized to make them easier to view for further studies and drug developments. Researchers have been growing samples of the virus in labs in order to study it, and to begin testing experimental and existing drugs against the disease. And scientists are discovering the drugs and vaccines to control this disease with medical researching team and using most advance technologies like artificial intelligence.
How AI Can Predict Coronavirus like Epidemic Before it Outbreaks?
AI in healthcare is already developed enough to diagnosis various types of critical diseases, but in case of the epidemic it failed and not able to predict timely, that took the life of many people across the world and still spreading further became a health emergency.
I’m talking about “Coronavirus Infection” – that started in mid-December in China and now transmitted to all major countries worldwide. This high contagious infection took lives of more than 800 people and infected over 37000 people globally.
The question arises here, why artificial intelligence has not been used to detect the risk associated with this kind of disease or AI is unable to detect such epidemic with right predictions, so that medical experts can envisage the situation timely.
Artificial Intelligence Coronavirus Prediction
A Canadian based global health monitoring platform – BlueDot, reportedly notified its clients of the outbreak of coronavirus on Dec. 31. But nobody has taken AI prediction seriously and now the situation became out of control in China.
BlueDot is the mastermind of Kamran Khan, who is an infectious disease physician and professor of Medicine and Public Health at the University of Toronto. Keep in mind that he was a frontline healthcare worker during the SARS outbreak.
How BluDot’s works in Epidemic Prediction?
BlueDot’s algorithm uses machine learning (ML) and natural language processing (NLP) technology to detect signs of potential disease outbreaks from the collected information that becomes a training data while developing such AI models.
Video: How BluseDot AI Predicted Coronavirus?
And such AI’s findings are reviewed and verified by human epidemiologists before sending a report to the company’s clients in government, industry and public health, as well as other public health officials, airlines and hospitals in the affected regions.
Data Used in AI Coronavirus Prediction
In the case of the coronavirus outbreak, the algorithm reportedly used airline ticketing information and pick news of such outbreaks like murmuring or forums or blogs or indications of some kind of unusual events going on to accurately predict the virus’ rapid spread from Wuhan, China, to Bangkok, Seoul, Taipei, Tokyo and other nations.
Here, in coronavirus prediction, BlueDot uses an AI-driven algorithm that scours foreign-language news reports, animal and plant disease networks, and official proclamations to give its clients advance warning to avoid danger zones like Wuhan.
Another AI PredictsCoronavirus Could Kill 53 million and infect 2.5 billion
Yes, as per an article published on Forbes, AI predicts coronavirus could infect 2.5 billionand kill 53 million. But doctorssaid that it is not credible.
Actually, since the coronavirus infection transmission started more than 30,000 people infected and died around 600. But conditions of infection are changing, which in turn changes incredibly important factors that the AI isn’t aware of.
To predict this epidemic along with infection and death data, AI neural net using a recurrent neural network (RNN) model and ran the simulation ten million times. That output dictated the forecast for the following day. Once the following day’s output was published, added it to the training data, and re-ran ten million times, the results are shocking.
From 50,000 infections and 1,000 deaths after a week to 208,000 infections and almost 4,400 deaths after two weeks, the numbers keep growing as each infected person infects others in turn. And in 30 days, the AI model says, two million could die and in just 15 more days, the death toll skyrockets enough to eliminate humans in millions.
Artificial Intelligence in Medical Epidemiology Prediction
As per the report AI in medical epidemiology predicted dengue with more than 80 percent accuracy in Malaysia. AI in medical epidemiology predicted the outbreaks of dengue in Penang, Malaysia for 37 locations while the actual outbreak was 30, accounting more than 80% accuracy in prediction, making AI reliable in such epidemic prediction.
Though, scientists are developing ways to use AI to predict the spread of such contagious diseases before they happen. Though, the process is extremely complicated, successful implementation of predictive modeling could represent a major leap forward in the fight to rid the world of some of the most insidious infectious diseases.
How AI Can be Improved to Predict Coronavirus Like Epidemic?
However, as per multiple doctors and medical professionals, there is good news, the model doesn’t know every factor, as conditions and data fed into the neural network are changing and these conditions change, the results will also change.
However, in coronavirus like epidemic AI could predict the number of potential new cases by area and which types of populations will be at risk the most. This type of technology could be used to warn travelers so that vulnerable populations can wear proper medical masks while traveling or take other precautions to prevent such infections.
Video: How AI Can Help to Control Coronavirus or Other Deadly Diseases?
Earlier researchers have built AI-based models that can predict outbreaks of the Zika virus in real time, which can inform how doctors respond to potential crises. AI could also be used to guide how public health officials distribute resources during a crisis. That will effectively work like AI stands to be a new first line of defense against such diseases.
AI in healthcare is already playing a vital role in assisting with researching new drugs, tackling rare diseases, and detecting breast cancer. AI was even used to identify insects that spread Chagas, an incurable and potentially deadly disease that has infected an estimated 8 million people in Mexico and Central and South America.
And now AI increasing interest in using non-health data like social media posts helping health policymakers and drug companies understand the breadth of a health crisis. For instance, AI that can mine social media posts to track illegal opioid sales, and keep public health officials informed about these controlled substances spread.
The Uncertainty Factor While Relying on AI
One of the core strengths of AI is while identifying and limiting the effects of virus outbreaks is its incredibly insistent nature. The machine never tire, can sift through enormous amounts of healthcare data, and identify possible correlations and causations that humans can’t in a fast manner and if the amount of data is huge or very complex to analyze.
While on the other hand, there are limitations of AI – the ability to both identify virus outbreaks and predict how they will spread. Let’s take the best-known example comes from the neighboring field of big data analytics.
At its launch, Google Flu Trends was heralded as a great leap forward in relation to identifying and estimating the spread of the flu — until it underestimated the 2013 flu season by a whopping 140 percent and was quietly put to rest.
Data Quality is Important for AI-based Predictions
Poor data quality was identified as one of the main reasons Google Flu Trends failed. Unreliable or faulty data can create confusion on AI-based prediction. In our increasingly interconnected world, tracking the movements of potentially infected individuals (by car, trains, buses, or planes) is just one vector surrounded by a lot of uncertainty.
But, BlueDot was able to correctly identify the coronavirus, in part dueto its AI technology, illustrates that smart computer systems canbe incredibly useful in helping us navigate these uncertainties.
And most importantly, it is not the same as AI being at a point where it precisely does so on its own – and that is the reason BlueDot employs only human experts to validate the AI’s findings.
Nevertheless, to ensure the accuracy of AI-based predictions for such an epidemic, a quality and reliable source of training data is necessary for supervised machine learning.
Hospitals, medical centers and healthcare organizations need to share the labeled medical images of such infected people to AI developers, so that they utilize the same and help the medical science and AI engineers develop a reliable AI model.
So that symptoms could be identified by the doctors and annotated to make it recognizable to computer vision through machine learning algorithms. In this case, the radiologist described Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Pneumonia through CT Imaging.
And when a huge amount of such CT scan images are manually annotated by experienced radiologists, it is used as a training data for machine learning AI models, that can in future detect such infections if similar symptoms are visible among the people. And as much as data used in the algorithm training, the accuracy of prediction by the model would be high.
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